If You Build It, They Will Come

MGM’s Osaka integrated resort project will be a catalyst for international hires and could spur change in immigration policy.

In April 2025, two big things happened on a small island in Osaka Bay. One was the opening of Expo 2025, Osaka, Kansai, an international exhibition expected to draw 28 million people over six months. The other was a groundbreaking ceremony for a $10 billion integrated resort (IR) that will host Japan’s first official casino and employ thousands. It was an unlikely new chapter for Yumeshima, a man-made island fashioned from waste, but it represents Japan’s confidence that it can overcome its demographic crisis and diversify its workforce to take on large projects.

Dreaming Big in a Shrinking Country

Births in Japan continue to set record lows, stoking fears of social collapse. Based on the aging population and record-low fertility rate, one demographer has even predicted that in about 700 years, Japan will have only one child left. Yet in 2024, the workforce reached 67.8 million—the highest level since 1953—bolstered by increased employment of women and elderly people. However, many of these are part-time roles, so total hours worked have not significantly grown. The national unemployment rate is only 2.5 percent, reflecting worker shortages.

This poses a challenge for MGM Osaka, an IR project that has been 15 years in the making since the idea for such resorts in Japan was officially floated more than 25 years ago. Politics dragged out the decision-making process, and the Covid-19 pandemic delayed the application process for hopeful municipalities. The Japanese government finally approved Osaka as the first IR host city in 2023, nine years after Yumeshima, or “Dream Island,” was proposed as the site.

When completed in 2030, MGM Osaka will have two hotels, some 2,500 rooms, a 3,500-seat theater, a convention center spread across 730,000 square feet, as well as shops and restaurants. The casino alone will house some 470 tables for poker and baccarat, in addition to 6,400 electronic tables for slots and other games.

To serve the nearly 20 million visitors expected to visit the resort each year, MGM Osaka will require an army of more than 15,000 workers, including dealers, pit bosses, and casino managers—jobs that don’t officially exist in Japan.

Navigating Japan’s Tightening Labor Market

“While our first priority is to hire locally and develop talent in the Kansai region, there are some highly specialized roles, such as experienced casino dealers, that may require us to look internationally,” said Jiro Kawakami, vice president and chief of staff at MGM Resorts Japan, one of the major shareholders of MGM Osaka. “In those cases, we bring in individuals who can share knowledge and help train and mentor others, with the long-term goal of building sustainable local capabilities.”

Navigating Japan’s regulatory framework for foreign labor, including visa regulations, can be complex—particularly for service-sector roles, explained Kawakami, who also serves as ACCJ vice president for Kansai. He adds that integration programs will be important to help international hires succeed in Japan’s unique business and social environment. On the domestic front, MGM will collaborate with local partners to train and upskill talent as they become familiar with large-scale integrated resort operations. 

The hospitality and tourism industries in Japan often use on-the-job training programs to develop employees, but there is a growing move to create and implement tourism-focused degree programs at accredited universities in Japan, Kawakami added. 

“Over the years, the Government of Japan has done a tremendous job of promoting tourism as a key industry,” he noted. “Going forward, the government, together with the private sector, should focus on making the hospitality and tourism industries more attractive to workers. Post-Covid, the focus has been on long hours and low wages. However, the industry is strong at promoting merit-based development opportunities vs. other industries, as well as diversity and inclusion initiatives.”

The casino project is large enough to serve as a catalyst for change in Japan’s overall employment practices. MGM Resorts Japan and Orix Corporation each hold a 40 percent stake in Osaka IR, with the remainder owned by local investors, including prominent brands such as Panasonic, Kansai Electric, and JR West. There are proposals to further develop the area with additional attractions, such as a water and amusement park, shopping centers, and possibly a Formula 1 racing circuit. These plans aim to leverage the infrastructure and global attention garnered by Expo 2025 to establish Yumeshima as a premier destination for both domestic and international visitors.

A Must: Overseas Workers

Some travelers to Japan decide to work here. In October 2024, the country had a record-high 2.3 million foreign workers, up 12.4 percent from a year earlier. According to a projection by the Japan International Cooperation Agency, the country will need at least 6.88 million foreign workers by 2040 to meet its growth targets.

Currently, industries seeing strong demand for international hires include IT, fintech, pharmaceuticals, financial services, and manufacturing—especially high-tech and automotive—according to Andrew Sipus, managing director of executive search at specialized recruitment agency Robert Half Japan. Employers are looking for technology and digital skills, financial expertise, multinational leadership and project management, as well as language and culture skills.

Sipus agrees that the Japanese government should focus on key areas for recruiting. He recommends streamlining visa and immigration procedures, especially for highly skilled professionals and their families, and investing in cross-cultural training and integration programs—not just for foreigners, but for Japanese employers and teams, too. Japan should also incentivize innovation and global hiring through tax breaks or grants for companies that build diverse teams, support infrastructure and living conditions that attract and retain international talent, and revise labor laws to support more flexible working styles, which are essential in attracting global professionals.

“Japan’s aging and shrinking population poses a fundamental challenge to sustained economic growth,” said Sipus. “Diversifying the workforce—across gender, nationality, and age—is not just a matter of inclusion; it’s a strategic imperative. Diverse teams are better equipped to adapt, innovate, and respond to the needs of global markets. Without embracing workforce diversity, Japan risks losing its edge in key industries and missing out on future growth opportunities.”

Lost Chance

How entry restrictions have impacted business and education

Over the past 18 months, the vast majority of foreign and domestic companies that have received assistance from the Japanese government—to get through a period widely regarded as the most challenging for businesses in living memory—have been deeply appreciative of that support. Companies across the spectrum have struggled to keep their heads above water as the coronavirus pandemic has raged around the world, ravaging their operations and forcing too many to pull down the shutters.

Yet there is one key area to which the policies of the Japanese authorities arguably have proved damaging.

Anyone in business knows that, by far, their most valuable assets are their people. But the government’s decision to impose stringent restrictions on anyone seeking to enter Japan—whether to return to a job, take up a new position, or begin a course of study—has added an extra layer of difficulty for many.

It was particularly galling for companies struggling with personnel issues to see those same restrictions relaxed for thousands of athletes, support staff, media, and VIPs arriving for the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games.

According to the Japanese government, a mere 17,700 foreign nationals entered the country in September, a figure that includes anyone arriving for any reason. That total is down 99.2 percent from the same month in 2019, the year before the pandemic gripped the global community.

Road to Recovery?

With infection rates falling and the number of people fully vaccinated rising steeply, the authorities in Japan have begun to ease restrictions on people being out and about, while the Go To Travel scheme is expected to be relaunched to encourage domestic trips. The hope is that the gradual loosening of restrictions will soon be carried over to the international sector and borders will once again be open.

For many in business here, that cannot come soon enough. The failure to open to business travelers—with all the necessary precautions and caveats in place—has damaged companies’ operations, and it will take time for most to fully recover.

“The government restrictions on entry into the country have impacted my business in two ways,” said Kenneth Lebrun, a partner with the law firm Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP in Tokyo. “First, we have been unable to bring new employees to Japan, whether internal rotations from our US offices or external hires, because the government is not issuing new long-term work visas. This has impacted the ability of professional service firms to provide services to Japanese clients concerning their overseas operations.”

Mergers and acquisitions (M&As) as well as foreign direct investment (FDI) have also been affected.

“In addition, the blanket ban on foreign business travelers coming to Japan—and the quarantine requirements for Japanese residents traveling abroad, and then returning to Japan—has negatively affected the level of cross-border investment and M&A activity, which is a significant portion of our business,” said Lebrun, who also serves as co-chair of the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan (ACCJ) FDI and Global Economic Cooperation Committee.

Brain Drain

The entry restrictions have also caused headaches for staff and students at the Tokyo campus of Temple University, the Philadelphia-based institution which will be marking 40 years in Japan next year.

“At present, we have individuals in four key positions who are unable to make it into the country based on current restrictions,” said Matt Wilson, president and dean of the Japan campus.

“Not being able to have our chief academic officer, head of libraries and online learning, director of academic advising, and financial aid coordinator on site in Tokyo has been less than ideal,” Wilson told The ACCJ Journal. “Although they are working remotely from the United States and doing their best to actively engage and work with students, it is especially challenging as we have continued to offer in-person courses throughout the pandemic.”

The impact on the student body has been even more damaging, with the university forced to cancel four short-term study abroad programs in Japan, meaning that 500 students have missed out on opportunities to study here. There are concerns that the next intake of more than 150 students for short-term courses, which are due to start in January, may also be affected if Japan does not announce in November its willingness to reopen its borders to students.

Wilson explained that not only has the financial impact on the university been substantial, but they may lose students if the restrictions are not eased soon.

“If we have to cancel another short-term cohort, Temple and non-Temple students interested in the program may end up at another destination, such as at our Rome campus or one of our partner destinations in Europe or Asia,” Wilson said. “Or—more likely than not—they will simply abandon their plans to study abroad. I have spoken with many students who have been waiting and waiting, and now they are running out of time academically to study abroad as they prepare to graduate.”

In addition, more than 200 undergraduates are taking courses remotely, often at odd hours of the night, while waiting for the borders to reopen so that they can either resume their courses here or start their studies. “Our overseas students want to be in Japan, not attending classes remotely from their home countries,” Wilson emphasized. “Our concern is that the patience of our current students who are unable to enter Japan will run thin, and they will burn out on online education at strange hours in their home countries. They could decide to take a leave of absence, drop out, or pursue other opportunities.

“Because of the borders being closed, we have actually had some long-term, degree-seeking students who decided they were going to attend other institutions, take an indefinite leave of absence, or simply abandon their plans to study here in Japan.”

And it did not have to be this way, he pointed out. Many students who had applied to study in Japan switched to Temple facilities elsewhere, such as the school’s Rome campus.

Italy reported some of the worst coronavirus outbreaks in Europe, with close to 4.75 million cases to date and nearly 132,000 deaths. Japan, in comparison, has seen 1.72 million cases and just over 18,000 deaths, despite having more than double the population of Italy. Yet the Italian authorities chose to continue to host short-term study abroad courses throughout the pandemic. Similarly, while the United States kept borders open to foreign students—including those from Japan—the Japanese government refused to reciprocate.

“The 14-day quarantine imposed by Japan was much stricter than [the quarantine of] other nations and, personally, I believe this quarantine period would have eliminated any potential problems of new students bringing Covid-19 into Japan,” Wilson said. He added that another tactic would have been to require all inbound students to demonstrate that they had received both doses of an approved vaccine as a precondition for receiving a student visa.

Forced Change

Businesses and other organizations with operations in Japan have had little choice but to adapt to the vastly changed circumstances, said Katheryn Gronauer, founder of cross-cultural training and coaching company Thrive Tokyo.

“For business-to-business clients, what impacted my work wasn’t necessarily the government’s entry restrictions themselves, but the attitudes of the companies I have been working with in response to the entry restrictions,” she said. “On the one hand, I have been able to do more work with companies that value online training and have trained not only those currently stuck overseas who will be moving to Japan, but also employees who will continue to be based overseas and communicate with Japanese colleagues.

“On the other hand, some companies have chosen to wait until their employees move to Japan before starting the training process in person, so work with those companies has been significantly delayed.”

Gronauer, who is a vice-chair of the ACCJ Sales Development Committee, has worked through the challenges by moving much of her operations online and increasing her wellness-related coaching to meet demand from companies that have staff working from home. She is optimistic that the changes that have been forced on businesses—such as the growing acceptance of online training sessions—will hasten digital awareness.

Lesson Learned?

Both Lebrun and Wilson said that their staff adapted quickly and efficiently to new ways of working in the early weeks and months of the pandemic. Lebrun called the efforts of his company’s current Japan-based workforce heroic, but said they hope that, in government, lessons have been learned which might enable the business community to avoid such problems should a similar crisis occur again.

“The Japanese government has clearly prioritized certain categories of travelers, such as visitors connected to the Olympics,” said Lebrun. “We think that issuing new work visas for long-term stays should have a higher priority, as such employees are critical to Japan’s competitiveness and economy.

“The longer the restrictions continue, the greater the long-term impact will be,” he added. “I am encouraged to hear that the Japanese government is looking for a gradual relaxation of restrictions beginning in November, and I hope they focus on restarting the issuance of long-term work visas for professionals.”

Temple University’s Wilson echoed this, adding that while Japan “has no higher priority than the protection, safety, and health of its citizens,” there was a need to better balance the different priorities and needs of society, which include education.

“Through the promotion and advancement of education, a country has the opportunity to elevate its citizens, improve society, enhance communication, and better prepare to tackle present and future challenges on a domestic and global scale,” he said.

“In today’s interconnected world, the pandemic has made it clear that many of our biggest challenges are global in nature. International education is vital. It builds lasting relationships, facilitates greater cross-cultural understanding, prepares future leaders, fosters innovation, improves competitiveness, strengthens economies, and ensures sustainable development,” he continued.

“Academic exchanges and study abroad are two important keys to international education. And I worry that the loss of study abroad students due to closed borders will have an impact for decades to come. International education opportunities have been lost.”

And the same goes for business.

---

Make Japan a Startup Nation

How can government best encourage economic growth?

If you had two minutes with the new prime minister, to give your best-shot advice on how to create a better economic future for Japan, what would you say?

From a macro perspective, by far the best answer is: Do whatever you can to make Japan a startup nation.

But where does economic growth come from? Not from the stuff politicians and technocrats talk about most of the time—e.g., monetary, fiscal, or trade policy. And importantly, it doesn’t come from population growth. It comes from entrepreneurs.

Clear-Cut Correlation

History has confirmed again and again that we only get sustained economic growth when human ingenuity and ambition are allowed and encouraged, and people are empowered to start an enterprise and build their own business.

China long had one of the world’s highest rates of population growth, but it only started becoming an economic miracle when the Communist Party encouraged entrepreneurship and private business in the early 1980s.

More generally, the numbers speak for themselves. When you analyze the world’s 40 leading economies over the past 30 years, you find a clear-cut correlation between the percentage of entrepreneurs in the adult population and the sustainable growth of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). More entrepreneurs create higher sustainable growth. In fact, if you raise the number of entrepreneurs in the population by one percentage point, your potential GDP goes up by about half a percent.

In even simpler terms, employment data confirms the positive power of entrepreneurship: startups have created 60–70 percent of new jobs in G7 countries over the past 20 years. Specifically, here in Japan, new companies set up after 2010 have provided about 2.3 million jobs over the past decade. In contrast, companies older than 20 years actually destroyed some 800,000 jobs over the same period.

So, dear prime minister, make no mistake—startups and entrepreneurship are a nation’s single most important source of growth and prosperity.

Finding Founders

The need for entrepreneurs is clear, but where do they come from?

Unfortunately, there is no magic bullet, no one simple policy tool that can be turned on to deliver entrepreneurs and create Startup Nation Japan. However, the key ingredients are all in place and, in my personal view, I firmly believe Japan stands at the brink of a golden age of entrepreneurs and startups.

Why? It’s a combination of cyclical and structural forces. Cyclically, the Covid-19 crisis has not only freed up resources but, more importantly, has become a catalyst for many people to rethink their career and life priorities. No matter how small, a startup can finally hire people and build teams, investing in what always yields the highest returns for any new venture: human capital. One of the biggest obstacles for growth and expansion has finally disappeared.

Even the most techy of tech companies, such as Google or Amazon, did not grow by the force of their superior algorithms, business models, or charismatic leadership vision. Instead, they grew as a result of the sweat equity and animal spirits of their team leaders, sales managers, and back-office clerks who pulled all-nighters. Elon Musk’s biggest problem is not tech, engineering, or digital transformation; it is his teams, the people who actually get stuff done.

In Japan, the bar for startups to attract talent has always been especially high because top graduates strongly prefer established companies. Bigger is supposedly safer. Here again, the current recession may well mark an important turning point. Not a week goes by that we don’t read about establishment companies announcing a restructuring plan. All of a sudden, big-company job security is not what it used to be. This is great news for entrepreneurs.

To be specific, I have the good fortune of working as an adviser and angel investor for a couple of Japanese venture capital funds. Over the past six months, all the startups with which we deal have grown their staff and partners. Several have more than doubled the size of their teams. Most importantly, the quality of potential candidates has grown enormously.

One young woman from a top establishment company, who has had no overseas or global experience, told me: “Working at my current employer has been great, but now that I know how good I am, and what I want, staying there puts me at risk. I don’t want to be reassigned to some random project by some random salaryman superior. I want to create my own destiny. Your startup is the best place to do that.”

To be sure, this young woman almost certainly is exceptional, and it may very well be wrong to present her as anything like the new norm for Japanese employees. However, unlike five or 10 years ago, candidates such as her do exist, and it would be wrong to underestimate the powerful ambitions—and awareness of opportunities—that Japan’s young talents and employees are prepared to explore.

Taking the leap from exploring to actually quitting one’s job and beginning a new career at a startup venture is likely to become easier. There’s no doubt that opportunities will increase, large established companies will continue to stagnate, and more young startups will demonstrate high, sustainable growth. Opportunities worth watching include:

• Healthcare and biotech
• Professional services and process automation
• Education and deep tech-based materials
• Anything serving wealthy Japanese retirees

Some will make a fortune building the Louis Vuitton retirement communities of Japan.

Learning from the Masters

On the structural side, Japan has developed a true and sustainable ecosystem of support for startups and aspiring entrepreneurs. Not a day goes by that the major newspapers don’t advertise a startup competition or venture capital symposium. Even Keidanren—the Japan Business Federation, which is the proud sanctuary of Japan’s corporate culture—now fully embraces innovation and entrepreneurship in its strategic vision. Japan’s elite establishment now knows that BAU—business as usual—is no longer an option.

Most importantly, Japan has a new generation of successful entrepreneurs, people who have built true going concerns, who commercialized and monetized an original idea, who overcame many obstacles and difficulties to build their dream. Sure, they have money to invest; but more fundamentally, many of these new successful entrepreneurs are focused on creating a positive legacy by giving back, mentoring, and advising the next generation.

Hidden from view by media obsession with Silicon Valley superstars, Tokyo, Osaka, and Fukuoka have become hotbeds of private initiatives to grow and develop a startup culture. These include mentorship programs, incubators, accelerators, venture capital funds, and daily discussions on the drop-in audio chat app Clubhouse. This private-sector ecosystem of open discussion, sharing, and networking is vital because a sustainable startup culture can only develop if success is celebrated and, more importantly, if failure is peer-encouraged to become a catalyst for another try.

As Japan’s most successful entrepreneur, Yanai Tadashi, founder of FastRetailing, which owns Uniqlo, supposedly once said, “I failed about 25 times before I finally succeeded.”

All said, the new Japanese golden age for entrepreneurs is very exciting. If I am right, we will have to become more optimistic about the overall outlook for Japan. Because one thing is certain: private entrepreneurship—not government handouts—will build future prosperity.

Dear prime minister, I trust you understand.

---