Go Big or Go Home
How Takaichi’s ruthless capitalism and Takanomics have Japan poised for resurgence in a changing world.
Pax Nipponica
With Japan uniquely positioned to emerge as a true 21st-century global leader, Jesper Koll asks who will write the rules governing our future?
Macro Pragmatism, Micro Optimism
Jesper Koll explains why Japan is open for business despite the turmoil and uncertainty sweeping the world.
Japan Surprises 2025
With the Year of the Snake poised to be a good one for Japan, renowned economist Jesper Koll predicts 10 possible twists for the year to come.
The Year Ahead 2024: Forecasts and Surprises
Qualitative predictions are based on a combination of experience and intuition. Like an inspired jazz solo, they deliver a genuine surprise that you did not expect but cannot live without once you’ve heard it. What unexpected riffs does 2024 have in store for Japan? Jesper Koll shares 10 twists and turns that could make for an interesting Year of the Dragon.
A Matter of Demographics
The year 2023 will go down in history as the moment when global investors began to take a serious interest in Japan. Jesper Koll shares the four Japan megatrends you and your corporate strategy must seek to exploit.
In Praise of the Salaryman CEO
They are not really part of the global Davos jet set. Many still proudly print a fax number on their cards. And in the age of the short quip, they lack a strong social media presence. But if you’re looking for extraordinary resilience and all-around competence, Japan’s salaryman CEOs have a very impressive track record, explains Jesper Koll.
Japan Surprises 2023
Surprises are the spice of life that make us perk up and challenge our baseline assumptions. And what better time to sprinkle them on than the start of a new year? Of course, there will always be a surprise or two, but here is my annual list of possible surprises that could add up to a heaping load for Japan in 2023. Whichever may come to be, I wish a happy, healthy, and prosperous new year to all!
Who Will Buy Japan?
Currency markets move in the direction of maximum pain. Now that yen depreciation is accelerating toward my ¥150–160 to the dollar parabolic overshoot target, outlined in the spring 2022 issue of The ACCJ Journal, it is worth thinking about where the maximum pain threshold might be, and what forces will arrest the yen’s fall from grace. Who will buy Japan?
Inflation!
A specter is haunting the world economy, the shadowy specter of inflation. Economists are fiercely debating from where it has come, politicians are busy blaming their opponents and, as always, the average citizen is left with no choice but to pay up. Yes, we all know inflation is lurking all around when you now must pay $50 for your $40 haircut that you used to get for $25 when you had hair. Japan stands out as the one economy in the world with a relatively benign inflation shock. Economist Jesper Koll explains why.
The Yen’s Fall from Grace
The Japanese yen is on track toward a parabolic move, with global and Japanese macro players set to become increasingly aggressive in betting on an overshoot toward ¥150–160 to the US dollar. Economist Jesper Koll examines the causes, the potential impact, and when the winds may shift again.
Japan Surprises 2022
With the Year of the Tiger well underway, here is Jesper Koll's annual list of Japan Surprises. These are not baseline scenarios or probability-ranked results of quantitative models but, rather, some of the things that Jesper says keep him up at night thanks to that nagging suspicion that some events could change everything. And yes, there is plenty of room for positive surprises from Japan in 2022.
This Time Is Different
Why won’t Japan slide back into another lost decade? What’s different this time? Economist Jesper Koll explains how three fundamental forces, changed from negative to positive, will make the difference.
Misplaced Pressure
The government of newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has elevated national security to a top priority by establishing the new position of economic security minister. Jesper Koll explains why the ministry could end up making it more difficult and cumbersome for global investors to buy Japanese companies and trade with Japanese suppliers.
Make Japan a Startup Nation
If you had two minutes with the new prime minister, to give your best-shot advice on how to create a better economic future for Japan, what would you say? From a macro perspective, by far the best answer is: Do whatever you can to make Japan a startup nation. But where does economic growth come from? Not from the stuff politicians and technocrats talk about most of the time—e.g., monetary, fiscal, or trade policy. And importantly, it doesn’t come from population growth. It comes from entrepreneurs.
Staying Focused on the Fundamentals
Japan’s dependency on the world has gone up since the start of Abenomics in 2012. Ten years ago, about 50 percent of profits came from global markets. As Jesper Koll explains, to be a successful investor, cut out the noise and don’t get distracted by smart-sounding stories or headline-grabbing advice. Stay focused on the fundamentals.