AI 1988
Look back at how members viewed the potential of AI in 1988 in this reprint from the ACCJ Journal archives.
Look back at how members viewed the potential of AI in 1988 in this reprint from the ACCJ Journal archives
Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming more and more widely used in Japan. Companies in this country are coming to realize that if they want to stay internationally competitive, they have to incorporate this technology. Davis is a popular contributor to these pages who specializes in high-technology subjects.
Japan’s large electronics companies are constantly looking for ways to boost the efficiency of their administrative work while searching for new markets so as to diversify their business. AI, a type of sophisticated computer programming that promises to revolutionize many job-related tasks, is catching on among electronics companies and software businesses here, and is also a target of interest among trading houses. All of these enterprises want to establish a foothold in this up-and-coming technical sector so as to enhance their long-term prospects. AI systems in the years to come may make or break certain companies in highly competitive areas of business. It would not be an exaggeration to say that a “mini boom” is being seen today in Japan’s AI sector.
AI systems under development here are intended to address bottlenecks within corporate product-development departments, and they are being marketed to outside customers, sometimes together with special types of data processing equipment. One of the best ways to sell more computer hardware is to market such equipment with an emphasis on higher value-added features, such as the ability to effectively handle AI writing tasks. However, Japanese companies in this field are all well aware that they have to contend with the likes of Symbolics Inc., a Cambridge, Massachusetts, global leader in AI workstations.
Two years ago (in 1986) the Artificial Intelligence Association of Japan was established in Tokyo by electronics companies, telecommunications businesses, software houses, and others interested in new developments in computer programming. The association cultivates exchanges between researchers in various AI-related fields and disseminates technical information to its members. Moreover, the association promotes specialized training of so-called knowledge engineers and other experts needed for the advancement of the new discipline. Establishment of the special association signifies the maturation of the initial commercial phase of AI here.
In contrast to Japan’s AI infrastructure, state-of-the-art American AI work is typically dominated by clusters of small businesses mainly located around major universities. In fact, many Japanese AI specialists have studied at leading US universities. As a result of the difference in the two paradigms, the large electronics enterprises of Japan have tremendous potential resources to devote to AI studies, whereas in the US, venture capital must typically be raised to fund much of the innovative work in AI.
“The global market for AI systems is likely to grow to as large as much as $10 billion per year sometime between 1995 and 2000, according to Japanese electronics industry estimates.”
The Japanese approach to the AI business often relies as much on proximity to leading US universities as it does on relationships with the top Japanese universities. In other words, Japanese universities are not major actors within the immediate sphere of AI business here. The paradigms are not without exception, however, because some smaller businesses in Japan, such as CSK Corp., are doing work in the field as well.
As AI is widely considered a promising growth market within the information processing sector, electronics companies are offering products that will allow users to develop their own AI systems, such as so-called expert systems. This customized programming is developed on the basis of experts’ knowledge; hence expert systems comprise handy tools for novices—so that they may easily draw upon the comprehensive knowledge of specialists to assist them in complicated tasks, such as writing specific types of software programs.
The global market for AI systems is likely to grow to as large as much as $10 billion per year sometime between 1995 and 2000, according to Japanese electronics industry estimates. The leading AI language today is LISP (LISt processor), and it is widely expected to retain its front-running position. Four of the largest AI applications expected in the mid-to-late 1990s are those for integrated circuit design assistance, manufacture planning, financial planning, as well as computer systems diagnosis and maintenance.
An example of a medical application of AI systems is the so-called RINGS program—rheumatology information counseling system—developed recently by Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp. and a medical college in Tokyo. The system is used by those suffering from rheumatism to help them in diagnosing minor problems over the telephone. When more serious problems arise, doctors are to be consulted. A variety of other medical-related AI systems are now under development, in part because the medical sector is likely to see rapid growth due to the aging of Japan’s population.
In the area of nuclear power plant operations, a group of Japanese enterprises is developing an expert system to enhance the safety of pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The LISP-based expert system is intended for use in new types of PWRs to be operated by Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. and three other electric utilities.
Greater safety in operating nuclear plants can lead to enhanced profits for the utility companies, as they will not need to shut down reactors for prolonged periods in order to do repairs, precautionary tests or other types of maintenance.
The most prominent of Japan’s AI-related development programs is the so-called fifth-generation computer project, which is administered by the Institute for New Generation Computer Technology (ICOT). The institute was established in 1981 under funding from the Ministry of International Trade and Industry’s (MITI’s) Machinery and Information Industries Bureau.
“Although today’s AI systems can only cope with surface level knowledge, those of the year 2000 are likely to be capable of dealing with more abstract forms of knowledge. ”
Altogether, there are nine private companies participating in the project. Researchers based at MITI’s Electrotechnical Laboratory (ETL) in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, are also involved. Moreover, the ETL, which is administered by MITI’s Agency of Industrial Science and Technology, is doing its own independent work in the field. Six to eight researchers from each of the electronics companies work at the ICOT center in Tokyo, and then only for periods generally ranging from two to four years.
When the project began in 1982, it was the subject of considerable attention throughout the world, due to its bold proposals and the perceived threat that it posed to the American and European computer software industries. However, recently it has not attracted much interest because Americans and Europeans have been less than impressed by the meager results of the project. US interest in the ICOT project led to the establishment of Microelectronics and Computer Technology Corp., a research consortium headquartered in Austin, Texas.
AI systems have a long way to go before they reach a phase of maturity. Although today’s AI systems can only cope with surface level knowledge, those of the year 2000 are likely to be capable of dealing with more abstract forms of knowledge. Advances in the memory capacity of computer microchips, parallel processing capabilities of computers, data processing speeds, and knowledge bases will accelerate the progress of the AI business sector.
Let us hope that people will always be able to keep the upper hand of control on such advanced tools as AI systems, and that the sophisticated tools won’t ever “discard” the humans they are supposed to be helping.
Alliance Maker
As US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel prepares to hand over the reins to a new envoy, he talks to The ACCJ Journal about the experience, the importance of the alliance, and the future.
ACCJ Person of the Year Rahm Emanuel reflects on three years as the US ambassador to Japan
After being tapped by US President Joe Biden to serve as the nation’s ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel arrived in Tokyo in January 2022 at a pivotal moment for the world. The Covid-19 pandemic was raging, Japan’s border closures were wreaking havoc on the business community, and the ripple effects were exposing vulnerabilities across the region.
Strengthening the bilateral relationship was essential. During his time as chief of mission, Emanuel has tirelessly worked to build bonds that foster a prosperous future not only for the United States and Japan, but for the entire Indo–Pacific.
In recognition of his strong support, the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan named Emanuel its 2024 Person of the Year and honored him with a special event on October 23 at Tokyo American Club.
As he prepares to hand over the reins to a new envoy, the 31st US ambassador to Japan talks to The ACCJ Journal about the experience, the importance of the alliance, and the future.
How can the business community strengthen the US–Japan alliance?
The US–Japan alliance is far from limited to our far-reaching security cooperation and the alliance’s place at the heart of a new latticework of security partnerships across the Indo–Pacific. That, of course, is fundamental to our relationship and to our collective deterrence in the region, but the United States and Japan have made strides on every front over the past three years.
As the largest foreign direct investor in each other’s economies, our two nations are persistently pursuing opportunities to forge closer links in business and research. In the fast-evolving environment of emerging technologies, our tech firms and academic institutions have the opportunity to lead the way in the research and development of artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, semiconductors, and other cutting-edge scientific fields.
But just as important as technological advances are our measures to protect them. This means tightening our export controls to ensure that technologies such as advanced AI chips don’t end up in the hands of adversaries with malign intentions. Ultimately, this is about securing our intellectual property, our economies, and the jobs of tomorrow.
“As the largest foreign direct investor in each other’s economies, our two nations are persistently pursuing opportunities to forge closer links in business and research.”
Of course, we need to ensure we have the relevant education programs in place to train the workers who will be shaping these 21st-century technologies. The United States and Japan have made real progress in this area through partnerships between tech companies and universities. We now need to keep up the momentum by continuing to expand and enhance these talent pipelines.
Investment is the fuel of great business ideas and ambitious thinking. Since the United States has a flourishing venture capital ecosystem, there are boundless opportunities for cooperation in this area between US and Japanese companies. Japan has long been a source of innovation and invention. It’s just a matter of finding the funding to ensure those ideas can take flight.
One area with huge potential is Japan’s biotechnology sector. An increasing number of start-ups are drawing interest from investors here. With greater collaboration and support from US biotech enterprises, and investors with expertise in the sector, Japan can become a leading biotech hub, not just in Asia but globally.
How do talent hurdles and gaps in DEI and marriage equality impact the alliance’s economic strength?
Japan faces the dual challenges of a rapidly aging society and a declining birthrate, which means that the country doesn’t have a person or a talent to lose when it comes to winning the 21st century.
Every country, including the United States and Japan, has a long way to go in fully implementing the principles of diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility. But if we are to build well-functioning societies and thriving economies, we need to leverage all our assets. It’s about properly and fairly employing the people we have and embracing an ethos of lifelong learning, upskilling, and retraining.
How can we best collaborate on AI?
Looking at the speed at which AI is being developed and adopted, there is no time to lose in ensuring the United States, Japan, and our allies remain at the forefront of this technology. It is imperative that we set the pace in its continuing evolution and in establishing a fully functioning, well-regulated ecosystem that is aligned with our laws and interests. The sector is already seeing a lot of research and development cooperation and cross-border investment between the United States and Japan. Having talked to many major players in the field, I am confident that this trend will only grow.
During former Prime Minister [Fumio] Kishida’s state visit to Washington in April, we saw the launch of an initiative between US and Japanese universities and private sector partners in both countries to boost AI-focused research and workforce development.
The partnerships between Carnegie Mellon and Keio Universities, and between the Universities of Washington and Tsukuba, are supported by $110 million in investment from Microsoft and other US concerns as well as a consortium of nine Japanese companies.
Similar partnerships between Japanese and US universities and leading tech companies were launched in the fields of semiconductors and quantum computing last year. Both programs are about making groundbreaking advances that will have global benefits while educating the workforce of tomorrow.
Empowering our best and brightest in these critical fields will pay dividends both for our two nations and the world.
How can cooperation on climate change and clean energy be strengthened?
Two of the greatest challenges facing us all are climate change and energy security. Just as in so many other sectors, the United States and Japan are well placed to combine their respective scientific expertise in the development of new and cleaner energy technologies.
Earlier this year, Japan became the first international collaborator in America’s Floating Offshore Wind Shot initiative, which aims to reduce costs associated with the energy source. Having committed ¥120 billion to the development of wind technology and launching the Floating Offshore Wind Technology Research Association (FLOWRA) this year, Japan clearly recognizes the enormous potential of offshore wind.
Our two countries are also partnering on advanced small nuclear reactor technology, for which demand is only set to increase as we build more data centers to power generative AI. Meanwhile, Japan’s largely untapped geothermal energy resources hold tremendous opportunities for further collaboration between Japanese and US energy corporations.
These areas of private sector cooperation and investment not only reinforce our energy security but also offer us opportunities for growth in other markets, as we join forces to help developing countries devise their own clean energy solutions and infrastructures.
How important has the US–Japan Year of Tourism been following the border closures?
While the news in Japan is dominated by the record-breaking numbers of inbound tourists, the number of Japanese tourists visiting the United States continues to rise following the pandemic. Destinations such as Hawaii and New York City remain extremely popular, and, thanks to a certain Japanese baseball player by the name of Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles—and Dodger Stadium, in particular—welcomed thousands of fans over the course of the MLB season this year. With Shohei recently named the National League’s MVP, we can expect to see even more Japanese travelers heading to California and elsewhere in the States when the 2025 season kicks off.
There are few places in the world with the sheer diversity of natural wonders and cultural and culinary experiences. Next year’s Expo 2025 in Osaka will be a chance to truly showcase all that the United States has to offer. Our interactive pavilion is designed to inspire visitors to learn more about the United States, explore the country in person, and even consider studying there. We expect the expo to help boost visitor numbers to the United States in 2025 and in the years ahead.
The recent agreement to establish Japan as our 18th Global Entry partner country couldn’t come at a better time, and is sure to enhance the travel experience of Japanese visitors to the United States. Since Japan is our largest foreign direct investor, and Japanese companies employ nearly a million Americans, it makes good business sense to make entry as straightforward and as stress-free as possible for pre-approved visitors. This latest agreement is another reflection of the strength of our bilateral ties.
How important was the Biden–Kishida summit?
[Former] Prime Minister Kishida’s state visit in April ushered in a new era for the alliance. It cemented the work we had been doing for the previous two years to deepen our cooperation in a multitude of areas. Security might be a key pillar of our partnership, but we are leveraging our strengths to drive innovation and growth on every front, from energy and education to science and space exploration. The United States and Japan, as President Biden reiterated during the state visit, are global partners whose endeavors and achievements are being felt across the Indo–Pacific and beyond.
The alliance is now at the heart of a new latticework of multilateral partnerships across the Indo–Pacific. By replacing our “hub-and-spoke” architecture of regional bilateral relationships with multilateral cooperation and consensus, we have built an energized environment of trust and dynamism in the region.
The historic trilateral partnerships we forged with Japan and South Korea and with Japan and the Philippines—as well as the work of the Quad strategic grouping of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia—boost our deterrence in the Indo–Pacific while providing renewed momentum for greater cooperation and integration between countries and economies. One thing is for certain: There is much more to come in the years ahead.
“What we do over the next three years will determine our presence and our vision over the next 30 in the region.” That line from my confirmation hearing in 2021 turned out to be my guiding principle during my time here.
How might Japan’s new political landscape impact bilateral cooperation?
Our efforts over the past three years to strengthen the US–Japan alliance, and to reassure allies and partners that the United States is a permanent Pacific power and presence, have received universal support from across the political spectrum on both sides of the Pacific.
There is a clear understanding in Japan and in the United States that the alliance forms the bedrock of our collective deterrence in the region, and that continued cooperation with other regional partners and allies is critical to confronting a China that seems intent on dominating its neighbors and forcing the region to play by its rules.
How has Japan changed your view of America?
Distance has given me perspective on both America’s strengths and challenges. My first few weeks in Tokyo were certainly eye-opening. Seeing people leave valuables on tables or benches while they went to get coffee or jog around the Imperial Palace revealed a level of social trust I had never witnessed before.
Equally bewildering—but beautiful—was the sight of young schoolchildren walking alone to and from school each day, with cars coming to a complete stop when children raised their hands in the air before crossing the road. Those scenes highlight to me how much kids in the United States have been robbed of their innocence. We make so many compromises and concessions for our safety in America. It’s been liberating to be free of that constant and nagging concern.
What I have been repeatedly reminded of while here is the dynamism of America’s entrepreneurial ecosystem. Our unique and unrivaled environment of venture capital firms and angel investors is what drives innovation and invention.
Our university research programs and private-sector tie-ups are unmatched, too. It’s no surprise that so many entrepreneurs, start-ups, and scientists gravitate to the United States—a place that embraces risk, encourages expression, and champions big thinking.
What is your message to the next ambassador?
The past three years have been about shoring up alliances, building multilateral partnerships, and strengthening our security commitments. With a firm framework now in place, the years and decades ahead will be about developing those strategic relationships and initiatives further while ensuring that the stability of the Indo–Pacific is protected and its economic vibrancy preserved.