AI 1988
Look back at how members viewed the potential of AI in 1988 in this reprint from the ACCJ Journal archives.
Look back at how members viewed the potential of AI in 1988 in this reprint from the ACCJ Journal archives
Artificial intelligence (AI) is becoming more and more widely used in Japan. Companies in this country are coming to realize that if they want to stay internationally competitive, they have to incorporate this technology. Davis is a popular contributor to these pages who specializes in high-technology subjects.
Japan’s large electronics companies are constantly looking for ways to boost the efficiency of their administrative work while searching for new markets so as to diversify their business. AI, a type of sophisticated computer programming that promises to revolutionize many job-related tasks, is catching on among electronics companies and software businesses here, and is also a target of interest among trading houses. All of these enterprises want to establish a foothold in this up-and-coming technical sector so as to enhance their long-term prospects. AI systems in the years to come may make or break certain companies in highly competitive areas of business. It would not be an exaggeration to say that a “mini boom” is being seen today in Japan’s AI sector.
AI systems under development here are intended to address bottlenecks within corporate product-development departments, and they are being marketed to outside customers, sometimes together with special types of data processing equipment. One of the best ways to sell more computer hardware is to market such equipment with an emphasis on higher value-added features, such as the ability to effectively handle AI writing tasks. However, Japanese companies in this field are all well aware that they have to contend with the likes of Symbolics Inc., a Cambridge, Massachusetts, global leader in AI workstations.
Two years ago (in 1986) the Artificial Intelligence Association of Japan was established in Tokyo by electronics companies, telecommunications businesses, software houses, and others interested in new developments in computer programming. The association cultivates exchanges between researchers in various AI-related fields and disseminates technical information to its members. Moreover, the association promotes specialized training of so-called knowledge engineers and other experts needed for the advancement of the new discipline. Establishment of the special association signifies the maturation of the initial commercial phase of AI here.
In contrast to Japan’s AI infrastructure, state-of-the-art American AI work is typically dominated by clusters of small businesses mainly located around major universities. In fact, many Japanese AI specialists have studied at leading US universities. As a result of the difference in the two paradigms, the large electronics enterprises of Japan have tremendous potential resources to devote to AI studies, whereas in the US, venture capital must typically be raised to fund much of the innovative work in AI.
“The global market for AI systems is likely to grow to as large as much as $10 billion per year sometime between 1995 and 2000, according to Japanese electronics industry estimates.”
The Japanese approach to the AI business often relies as much on proximity to leading US universities as it does on relationships with the top Japanese universities. In other words, Japanese universities are not major actors within the immediate sphere of AI business here. The paradigms are not without exception, however, because some smaller businesses in Japan, such as CSK Corp., are doing work in the field as well.
As AI is widely considered a promising growth market within the information processing sector, electronics companies are offering products that will allow users to develop their own AI systems, such as so-called expert systems. This customized programming is developed on the basis of experts’ knowledge; hence expert systems comprise handy tools for novices—so that they may easily draw upon the comprehensive knowledge of specialists to assist them in complicated tasks, such as writing specific types of software programs.
The global market for AI systems is likely to grow to as large as much as $10 billion per year sometime between 1995 and 2000, according to Japanese electronics industry estimates. The leading AI language today is LISP (LISt processor), and it is widely expected to retain its front-running position. Four of the largest AI applications expected in the mid-to-late 1990s are those for integrated circuit design assistance, manufacture planning, financial planning, as well as computer systems diagnosis and maintenance.
An example of a medical application of AI systems is the so-called RINGS program—rheumatology information counseling system—developed recently by Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp. and a medical college in Tokyo. The system is used by those suffering from rheumatism to help them in diagnosing minor problems over the telephone. When more serious problems arise, doctors are to be consulted. A variety of other medical-related AI systems are now under development, in part because the medical sector is likely to see rapid growth due to the aging of Japan’s population.
In the area of nuclear power plant operations, a group of Japanese enterprises is developing an expert system to enhance the safety of pressurized water reactors (PWRs). The LISP-based expert system is intended for use in new types of PWRs to be operated by Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc. and three other electric utilities.
Greater safety in operating nuclear plants can lead to enhanced profits for the utility companies, as they will not need to shut down reactors for prolonged periods in order to do repairs, precautionary tests or other types of maintenance.
The most prominent of Japan’s AI-related development programs is the so-called fifth-generation computer project, which is administered by the Institute for New Generation Computer Technology (ICOT). The institute was established in 1981 under funding from the Ministry of International Trade and Industry’s (MITI’s) Machinery and Information Industries Bureau.
“Although today’s AI systems can only cope with surface level knowledge, those of the year 2000 are likely to be capable of dealing with more abstract forms of knowledge. ”
Altogether, there are nine private companies participating in the project. Researchers based at MITI’s Electrotechnical Laboratory (ETL) in Tsukuba, Ibaraki Prefecture, are also involved. Moreover, the ETL, which is administered by MITI’s Agency of Industrial Science and Technology, is doing its own independent work in the field. Six to eight researchers from each of the electronics companies work at the ICOT center in Tokyo, and then only for periods generally ranging from two to four years.
When the project began in 1982, it was the subject of considerable attention throughout the world, due to its bold proposals and the perceived threat that it posed to the American and European computer software industries. However, recently it has not attracted much interest because Americans and Europeans have been less than impressed by the meager results of the project. US interest in the ICOT project led to the establishment of Microelectronics and Computer Technology Corp., a research consortium headquartered in Austin, Texas.
AI systems have a long way to go before they reach a phase of maturity. Although today’s AI systems can only cope with surface level knowledge, those of the year 2000 are likely to be capable of dealing with more abstract forms of knowledge. Advances in the memory capacity of computer microchips, parallel processing capabilities of computers, data processing speeds, and knowledge bases will accelerate the progress of the AI business sector.
Let us hope that people will always be able to keep the upper hand of control on such advanced tools as AI systems, and that the sophisticated tools won’t ever “discard” the humans they are supposed to be helping.