Renewable Ambitions

Japan aims to mix up power, but are the targets achievable?

Japan has detailed ambitious plans for the wider deployment of renewable energy sources throughout the economy, with the government in October 2021 announcing the Sixth Strategic Energy Plan and setting a target of between 36 and 38 percent of the nation’s power coming from renewables in 2030.

That would be about double the 2019 level and significantly above the previous 2030 goal of up to 24 percent.

Japan’s target renewables mix would include up to:

• 16 percent from solar
• 11 percent from hydropower
• 5 percent from wind
• 5 percent from biomass
• 1 percent from geothermal

The contribution from nuclear energy was left unchanged, at between 20 and 22 percent. This will require a minimum of 30 reactors to be operational.

The targets tie in with the Clean Energy Strategy, unveiled by the government in May 2022, announcing an ambitious 46-percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in fiscal 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2050.

And, given the impact of instability involving Russia and in the Middle East, the two traditional primary sources of energy for Japan, combined with the yen at 10-year lows against other leading currencies, it would be in Japan’s best interest to dramatically reduce its reliance on imported energy.

Yet energy experts caution that Tokyo is unlikely to reach those targets as progress in the development of renewables has slowed, with fewer large-scale solar projects, delays in offshore wind generation, and local resistance hampering the acceleration of other technologies, such as onshore wind and geothermal power.

“Private capital markets are ready to invest in Japan, and both multinational and Japanese firms have developed technology and human resource pools to hit targets,” points out Andrew Statter, a partner at the Titan Consulting Group and head of its GreenTech division.

“However, policies and subsidies are unclear, and there are conflicts between ministries that are causing questions for investors while potentially profitable asset types, such as large-scale agrisolar, are not yet eligible for project financing,” he told The ACCJ Journal. “All of which puts a huge pause on the potential accelerated development that industry is ready to deliver.”

Japan needs to go beyond the “what” in its policies and clarify the “when,” “where,” and “how” to encourage investment, Statter said.

Favorable Winds

Turning to specific energy resources, Statter said offshore wind is critical as Japan has geographical and physical limitations on the volume of onshore renewables that can be developed. “With vast ocean resources, offshore wind is the ideal renewable technology which is proven and scalable to give Japan a shot at hitting renewable energy targets,” he said. “Key here is the need to accelerate floating offshore wind, as Japan’s waters become very deep quite close to shore.”

Statter also sees a secondary benefit to Japan’s expansion of floating technology. The country could become a technology exporter on a regional scale as Asia–Pacific markets embrace the technology.

Akira Amano, country manager of Invenergy Wind Development Japan GK, agrees on the importance of offshore wind to the nation’s overall energy goals, pointing out that “Japan has the right resources to become a global leader in renewable energy, especially offshore wind.”

He also concurs that significant challenges need to be navigated for the renewables sector to thrive.

“In order to accelerate progress and meet our nation’s goals, there will need to be long-term regulatory certainty, increased transmission capacity to deliver energy to customers, and long-term planning to address challenges like cost uncertainty.

Amano also noted that, with strong leadership, Japan can accelerate the build-out of clean energy and meet its energy goals in a timely manner.

Rocky Foundation

If the authorities are serious about making the most of offshore wind, Amano said, a number of regulations need to be revised, not least the unbundling of generation, transmission, and distribution at existing electricity utility companies to get rid of unfair competition. The sector also needs the authorities to increase the price for renewable energy certificates, he added.

Hideyuki Ohnishi, regional general manager for GE Renewable Energy in North Asia, agrees that Japan needs to make the most of its exclusive economic zone—one of the world’s largest—for offshore wind.

“The wind conditions, the speed and quality of the wind, is much better when you go to the seaside,” said Ohnishi. “In the mountains, there is turbulence and such, and average wind [speed] is not as strong. So, it is important for us to go to the places where we have better wind.”

Yet there are challenges, particularly in laying the foundations for turbines.

“We have to install big wind turbines in the sea, where the depth differs,” he explained. “Wave and seabed conditions have an impact. The geosurface is very important. Rocks and related conditions impact our design, and it’s not easy in terms of technology.”

Equally, the investment required to get the blades turning is significant, and projects must be considered in the long term.

The Japanese government is also pushing for 60 percent of the components in offshore wind farms to be manufactured locally.

General Electric started working with Toshiba in 2021, initially focusing on the nacelle at the top of the tower that houses all the critical components of the turbine. Construction of the nacelle is now largely done by local labor and with components utilizing the local supply chain, all of which will have a long-term benefit for the community, Ohnishi added.

Lofty Aims

While the government’s 2030 targets can be achieved as battery storage and grid technology improve, in tandem with innovations in the use of the grid, the 2050 targets are “a real moonshot,” Ohnishi admitted. “The 2050 goal is very, very challenging, but a majority of us have agreed to aim for it,” he said.

The Japanese government has also been a vocal advocate of hydrogen as an effectively limitless source of energy in the future, although questions are being asked as to whether this is the most appropriate path.

“Generally speaking, I think the industry and international impression is that Japan’s hyper focus on hydrogen to solve all problems has been outsized and unrealistic,” said Ken Haig, vice-chair of the ACCJ Energy Committee. “It is also too future-focused, relying on technologies that will not become commercially viable or scalable until well after 2030.”

Haig noted a comment made by former ACCJ President Glen Fukushima in a recent Kyodo News opinion piece: “Japan’s support for innovation in green hydrogen, perovskite technology, and offshore wind is the right move,” said Fukushima, “But METI should take a ‘yes, and’ approach by also immediately boosting funds to deploy existing clean energy technologies like solar and wind power—technologies that have already proven successful for Japan.”

Whatever the source, the renewables sector agrees that Japan’s need for home-grown energy is only going to intensify. The Sixth Strategic Energy Plan is billed as a rethink of regulations that have thus far inhibited development; for developers, the elimination of red tape cannot come soon enough.