Changed Reality
US Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel shares his views on the state of the bilateral relationship
Photos by Miki Kawaguchi/LIFE.14
Listen to this story:
When Rahm Emanuel arrived in January as the 31st US ambassador to Japan, he wasted no time in building new connections and strengthening existing ties between the two countries. His experiences as mayor of Chicago, President Barack Obama’s chief of staff, a member of the US House of Representatives, and senior advisor to President Bill Clinton coalesce into a whirlwind of diplomatic energy. He has already visited 10 of Japan’s 47 prefectures and attended events stretching from Hiroshima to Otsuchi, in Iwate. And his love of trains and use of the country’s mass transit has captured the hearts of Japanese media.
On May 16, Emanuel took time out from this fast-paced schedule to speak to members and guests of the American Chamber of Commerce in Japan (ACCJ). Organized by the ACCJ Government Relations Committee, the luncheon at Tokyo American Club saw more than 200 in-person and remote attendees listen as the ambassador shared his thoughts on Japan and the great potential for the bilateral relationship. Emanuel also graciously responded to a range of questions during a lengthy Q&A session.
Following a welcome from committee Vice-Chair Anne Smith, ACCJ President Om Prakash delivered opening remarks. Noting that the ACCJ, as the voice of the US business community, has enjoyed a close and valuable relationship with the US Embassy, Tokyo, over the course of the chamber’s nearly 75-year history, he said, “I can’t think of a better person at the right time in the right place than this man.” In response, the ambassador quipped, “Intros like that make you wish your parents were here, because you know your mother would be proud and your father would be amazed.”
Impact on Investment
Emanuel began by noting that, after two years without an ambassador to its most important ally in the most important region, the White House and President Joe Biden are placing great value on Japan. The bilateral relationship, Emanuel believes, is at an inflection point. “We are no longer discussing, as we have for the past 40 years, alliance protection. I think the US–Japan relationship has matured into alliance projection,” he explained. “Yes, it’s about the two countries, but it is about the two countries projecting forward into the region in a shared way.”
As he said this, the embassy was preparing for Biden’s May 22–24 visit. That the trip took place so soon after the ambassador’s arrival highlights how their long working relationship energizes efforts to build cooperation with the administration of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
Stable, Sustainable Business
The challenges facing the world are many, and some are shaking the foundations of long-held approaches to business operations.
Emanuel said he feels we are transitioning from neoliberalism to a world in which consideration of potential conflict and political turmoil must play a key role in corporate decisions.
“There have been three major events that have shaken people and their calculations of what is going to be the road going forward,” he said. “And it’s a level of uncertainty, and an intensity of uncertainty, that really hasn’t been experienced in a long time when it comes to international affairs and international economics.
“My own view is that low cost and efficiency, which have been the guiding North Star for your individual companies for how you make investments, where you make investments, etc., those North Stars are slowly but surely … being replaced by stability and sustainability. No company today making a major decision economically, internationally, is going to be stuck with a major investment in an insecure, unstable political environment, a country that can one day have major sanctions [placed] on it,” he continued, alluding to the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the potential for future conflicts.
New Calculus
The coronavirus pandemic, he noted, has already exposed the fragility of supply chains, and the war in Ukraine is having a similar impact in how it raises concerns over uncertainty in and around political systems, even in democratic countries. “You’re going to start to change the calculus of how you make investments, based on whether a country is politically stable and if it lives by the rule of law. Does it have the resilience and sustainability that you need as a company?”
Speaking of uncertainty as it pertains to international trade, Emanuel said that we are witnessing the emergence of a new political and economic equation, one that will become clearer over the next five years. To stability and sustainability he added resilience. “Each of those, in some way, becomes more dominant in how we think about political decisions, commercial decisions, and economic decisions.”
He closed by saying that he feels we have a unique opportunity to advance US–Japan relations.
“I said when I was confirmed, I think that what we do in the next three years, as the US and Japan, will determine our relationship for the next 30.”
The ambassador believes that, if Kishida emerges victorious in the July elections, Biden has a chance to build a solid foundation with the Japanese prime minister, with whom he came to be on a first-name basis after they had spent just one day together in May.
Emanuel knows what can happen when there is instability at the top, and how that can impact the bilateral relationship. As Clinton’s senior advisor, he saw six Japanese prime ministers come and go in eight years. “As soon as you started to get to know somebody, they were gone,” he said. “There’s a chance President Biden will have one prime minister for his tenure,” he continued. “That’s a unique opportunity not only to develop a relationship but [to work with] a person who, without an election overshadowing decisions, has the ability to make some real decisions for the future of the US–Japan relationship, including as it relates to the Indo–Pacific.”
To that end, Emanuel applauded Kishida for his leadership in the face of recent global uncertainty.
“One of the things I think Prime Minister Kishida has done very successfully is he has taken the Indo–Pacific and the Transatlantic and collapsed them into a single strategic sphere,” he said. “Just in the past 10 days, he’s hosted the European Union president, the Finnish prime minister, the chancellor of Germany and, two days prior to that, on his visit to Europe, he was with the British prime minister, the Italian prime minister, and the Pope. That should be seen as a way in which Europe now has a vested interest in a free and open Indo–Pacific. That is a major change of where we are politically and a major change of where we are economically.”
Concluding his speech, Emanuel told the crowd: “I look forward to the next three years working with each of your companies and promoting not only your commercial interests but, more importantly, our shared interests.”
